Jake Arrieta, starting pitcher

Is he a future star?

I may be in the minority, but I’m not boarding Jake Arrieta’s bandwagon. Arrieta was a highly-touted prospect after he signed an above-slot contract out of college; he shot through A and AA ball and reached Norfolk in mid-2009. He pitched unimpressively in 2009 but seemed much better in 2010; after twelve starts, he was called up to Baltimore and pitched superficially okay (6-6. 4.66 ERA).

But both in AAA and Baltimore Arrieta hasn’t been able to throw strikes consistently. In AAA, his BB/K ratio has been 67-142 and his K/IP ratio has been 142/165; in the majors, they’ve been 48-52 and 52-100. His AAA numbers aren’t outstanding and his major league numbers are bad. I’ve seen Arrieta pitch several times at Norfolk, and he just doesn’t have good control or command. I expect Arrieta to have occasional flashes of brilliance, but I also expect him to be a mediocre contributor over the long haul.